Future Foresight — known also as Strategic Foresight — is about developing deep new insights into the various different trends and events happening in the world — including the underlying forces that are driving each of those trends and events — so that we can then start to develop a far more focused picture of what the range of possible and plausible new futures confronting us might look like.
This allows us to more fully understand the ‘future sandbox’ in which we as an organization have to operate — together with where our organization can fit into all of that.
To do this, Future Foresight requires us to scan for different trends happening inside our organization's ‘environment’, as well as out along the edges of its ‘horizon’ — so that we can then understand not only what is currently happening in the world, or has been happening in its recent past, but more importantly, what is possible and likely to happen in its future, given all these different forces at work in the world. It is therefore these forces… these drivers, that are just as important – if not more important – as the trends and events themselves, for it is these drivers that will continue to carry – or otherwise disrupt – the flow of these trends.
In order to do this, Future Foresight gives us a very specific set of tools and means by which we can study, contemplate, and consider these forces, so that we can then understand the full range of possible new futures that could occur in the days ahead of us.
This is important, because if your organization is to ensure that it is pursuing a truly resilient path into the future, then it must look far, far ahead into that future and strive to understand – to the extent possible – the full range of possibilities open to it at different points in time — so that ultimately it can — via Strategic Futuring — significantly influence and drive the future to become that which we want it to be… what is otherwise known as “shaping the future”.
In practice, Future Foresight work is divided into three (3) distinct and sequential stages — Framing, Scanning, and Analysis & Forecasting.
The purpose of Framing is to allow the organization to define the boundaries of where it will pursue its Future Foresight efforts — and later on, its Strategic Futuring efforts.
To undertake Framing, the organization will gather together its leaders, and these leaders will then collectively decide on certain specific areas of interest — known as Domains — which the organization will then focus its upcoming Scanning, Analysis, and Forecasting efforts on.
The choice of which Domains to study and follow can arise out of any number of different strategic goals or imperatives. This choice will also define the boundaries for the inputs the organization has available to it later on when it undertakes its subsequent Strategic Futuring efforts.
Within each Domain selected, the organization can also define certain specific Themes — and within those Themes, certain specific Sub-Themes — that it wishes to explore and investigate more specifically.
Also, in addition to the broad, general Domains, Themes, and Sub-Themes the organization has selected, certain stakeholders in the organization may also request that additional, more narrow, Domains, Themes, and Sub-Themes be investigated more deeply on their behalf — to be used in subsequent efforts of concern only to them. Thus the distinction is generally made between the normal broad-focus Domains / Themes / Sub-Themes (which will likely be with the organization for a long time), and these deep-focus Domains / Themes / Sub-Themes (which are far more special, one-off efforts for these particular stakeholders).
Together, the broad-focus Domains / Themes / Sub-Themes, and any more narrow deep-focus Domains / Themes / Sub-Themes, define the full breadth of where the organization will focus all of its Scanning, Analysis, and Forecasting efforts.
The purpose of Scanning is to identify, profile, and document all of the trends and events – however obscure – happening inside the Domains, Themes, and Sub-Themes selected by the organization.
To undertake Scanning, the organization will have Researchers engage in a very specific set of tasks and activities aimed at so identifying, profiling, and documenting these trends and events.
This identification, profiling, and documentation of trends and events creates within the organization a knowledgebase, which the organization can then use at any given time to know what is happening inside its chosen Domains. It also creates the inputs that the organization's Analysts will subsequently employ in their Analysis and Forecasting efforts.
To carry out the Scanning work, a very specific set of tools and practices are employed. These include the following:
The purpose of Analysis & Forecasting is to very carefully study and analyze each of the trends and events previously identified and documented in the Scanning effort, so as to fully understand their drivers, trajectories, and (most importantly) implications to the organization — and to thereafter forecast a range of possible futures that could occur as a result of each of these trends and events combined with other factors like the actions of the organization and other parties — all interacting with and impacting one another.
To undertake Analysis & Forecasting, the organization will have Analysts engage in a very specific set of tasks and activities aimed at so studying and analyzing the identified trends and events, and thereafter leveraging those foresights to forecast the range of possible and plausible future scenarios the organization could encounter in the days, weeks, months, years, and decades ahead of it.
This range of possible and plausible new futures thus creates the ‘canvas’ onto which the organization's Visionaries can begin to paint new visions for an ideal and preferred future at different points in time — the one unique scenario deemed most desirable and advantageous to the organization's cause — and likewise its Strategists can ultimately craft impactful new strategies for the organization, which will allow it to shape, drive, and otherwise influence the future toward that new ideal.
To carry out the Analysis & Forecasting work, a very specific set of tools and practices are employed. These include the following:
The outcomes, and thus deliverables, of Future Foresights work will be the following items:
These will all be formally documented for the organization as a final Future Foresights Report.
Future Foresights – as described herein – delivers the necessary foundation for being able to subsequently undertake Strategic Futuring.
Indeed, without first completing this Future Foresight work, it is impossible to properly undertake Strategic Futuring, as Strategic Futuring inherently relies on having these plausible new future scenarios defined for it, as such future scenarios create the ‘canvas’ onto which Strategic Futuring seeks to cast its new visions and craft its new strategies.
It is mandatory therefore, to first undertake this Future Foresight work prior to being able to undertake the corresponding Strategic Futuring work. Otherwise, the Strategic Futuring will be working off of guesses and hunches, rather than proper analysis and forecasting, and as a consequence would likely produce very subpar and unreliable results. Thus the two activities must always be used in sequence with one another.
Beyond this, it is very important for the organization to understand that Future Foresight is not a once-and-done activity. Rather it must become a constantly ongoing activity that the organization is perpetually engaged in — so that at any given time it understands the trends occurring around it and can act accordingly — altering its strategies and devising new strategies — so as to be able to continue shaping and driving the future indefinitely.
Give us a call to learn more about our Future Foresights work.
The Future Foresights Engagement typically follows these steps:
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